Turismo não vai recuperar? (ver " Macau will never again reach the peak it previously achieved"

 MAR25

Fitch Ratings Inc forecasts Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to slow to 6.9 percent this year from 8.8 percent in 2024, as the city’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) “is likely to rise more gradually to roughly 81 percent of its 2019 level, after a rebound in 2024”.

The commentary was part of a Tuesday report in which the institution affirmed Macau’s long-term issuer default rating at “AA”, with a “stable” outlook.

In its latest report on Macau, a special administrative region of China, Fitch analysts George Xu, Jeremy Zook and Jan Friederich wrote: “We expect GDP growth to be supported by continued, but slower, gaming tourism recovery, along with favourable visa policies for mainland visitors, non-gaming investments and enhanced tourism infrastructure.”

They added: “However, a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, such as from substantial U.S. tariff hikes, and sharp yuan depreciation pose downside risks to Macau’s prospects.”

https://www.ggrasia.com/fitch-forecasts-macaus-gdp-growth-at-6-9pct-in-2025-on-slower-gaming-tourism-recovery?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=fitch-forecasts-macaus-gdp-growth-at-6-9pct-in-2025-on-slower-gaming-tourism-recovery

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declining tourist purchasing power

The Macau Economic Association has raised concerns over a decline in tourist purchasing power, citing global economic uncertainties and weakening spending by visitors.

In its latest economic study, the association pointed to a drop in gaming revenues and the impact of high interest rates and trade policies on the Chinese yuan, which could further affect Macau’s tourism sector.

“High interest rates and changes in international trade policies pose risks to the RMB currency, which could impact the purchasing power of Chinese tourists visiting Macau,” the association stated.

Recent economic pressures have already affected visitor spending.

According to the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC), the per capita expenditure of visitors last year was MOP 2,157, a 14.6% decrease compared to 2023. The per capita expenditure of overnight visitors in Macau stood at MOP 3,884, while day-trippers spent an average of MOP 691—declining by 8.2% and 12.7%, respectively.

Joey Lao, president of the Macau Economic Association, also pointed to international trade tensions as a contributing factor. “The United States has recently imposed new tariffs on goods from various countries, including China, exacerbating ongoing trade tensions. In January, production indexes for several major nations remained below the average Purchasing Managers’ Index,” Lao said.

The effects of these economic headwinds are visible in Macau’s tourism and gaming sectors. During the recent Lunar New Year holiday, visitor arrivals dropped by 3.5%, and gaming revenues failed to meet market expectations, according to the association.

The average daily gross revenue from gaming activities remained below MOP 600 million in both December 2024 and January 2025, with figures of MOP587 million and MOP589 million, respectively. Additionally, local banks’ loan-to-deposit ratio declined from 100% in June 2023 to 79.3% in December 2024.

Despite these challenges, the association highlighted positive employment indicators and a stable unemployment rate.

Lao expressed optimism that new monetary and consumer incentive policies from mainland authorities could help boost Macau’s economy.

Meanwhile, the government also said that is exploring additional campaigns aimed at boosting community neighborhoods.

The Economic and Technological Development Bureau (DSEDT) confirmed that it is considering implementing initiatives similar to the citywide consumption program to further stimulate economic activity in these areas, in response to lawmaker Ella Lei’s interpellation.

The response highlighted that these new efforts aim to attract more visitors to community neighborhoods, which have experienced slower-than-expected economic recovery.

Looking ahead, the association expects the region’s economic outlook to remain stable over the next three months, though concerns over visitor spending and external economic pressures persist. The economic climate indices for December 2024 and January 2025 were recorded at 6.5 and 6.3, respectively, reflecting a stable outlook. Staff Reporter

https://macaudailytimes.com.mo/association-warns-of-declining-tourist-purchasing-power.html

fev25 Spending

The total visitor spending (excluding gaming expenses) rose 5.8% annually to MOP75.36 billion in 2024, the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) reported.
The result was credited to the motivation stemming from a 23.8% rise in visitor arrivals.
Total spending by overnight visitors (MOP62.31 billion) and same-day visitors (MOP13.05 billion) grew by 3.5% and 17.9%, respectively.
Despite the increase in total value, per-capita spending by visitors decreased by 14.6% year-on-year to MOP2,157.
The per-capita spending of overnight visitors (MOP3,884) and same-day visitors (MOP691) fell respectively by 8.2% and 12.7%, year-over-year.
According to the same report, visitors primarily spent on shopping (45.4% of the total), followed by accommodation (25.5%) and food and beverages (20.9%).

Analyzed by the primary purpose of the visit, per-capita spending of visitors coming to Macau to attend performances/competitions (MOP5,076) and MICE events (MOP4,323) was relatively high in 2024.

Singapore visitors spent the most in Macau in 2024 (MOP2,834), followed by those from Thailand (MOP2,598) and mainland China (MOP2,503).

While expenditures from Thailand and mainland China dropped by 22.7% and 18.1%, respectively, Singapore recorded an increase of 6.6%.
Spending from South Korea (MOP2,405) came fourth, followed by Japan (MOP2,093).

https://macaudailytimes.com.mo/visitors-spent-5-8-more-in-2024-singaporeans-top-spending-per-capita.html

fev25

Macao’s casinos may have “hit a ceiling” when it comes to generating gaming revenue, industry expert David Bonnet suggests in a lengthy opinion piece published by Inside Asian Gaming on Tuesday. The gaming consultant also posed a question: What does “healthy development” look like for the casino industry under the SAR’s new government?  https://asgam.com/2025/02/11/opinion-has-macau-hit-a-ggr-ceiling/

Bonnet points to “shrinking gross gaming revenue (GGR)” exemplified by a 5.6 percent year-on-year drop in January, in spite of revamped resorts, increasing numbers of smart tables and “tailwinds” from the Lunar New Year holiday in the form of a visitor influx.

“With the CNY holiday generally coinciding with peak yearly demand, 2025’s monthly GGR may have already crested and could eventually ebb to around 18 billion patacas (US$2.24 billion), adjusting with seasonality,” he wrote. 

[See more: MGM’s CEO is ‘pretty excited’ about Macao in spite of China’s troubled economy]

January netted 18.25 billion patacas (US$2.27 billion) in GGR, while 2024 saw a monthly average of 18.9 billion patacas (May was last year’s peak, at 20.2 billion patacas). The government has projected annual GGR of 240 billion patacas (US$29.9 billion) for 2025, meaning a monthly average of about 20 billion patacas (US$2.49 billion) across the year. Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai has also repeatedly emphasised that gaming’s “healthy” development would be prioritised going forward, as opposed to the rampant growth of the 2000s and 2010s.

According to Bonnet, the official forecast could be a “not-so-subtle implication … that GGR productivity of up to approximately 20 billion patacas monthly is healthy, but anything more than that is unhealthy.”

He pointed to a number of national and local initiatives rolled out last year that could be tempering GGR growth: the crackdown on illegal money exchange operators at the SAR’s casino-resorts, the central authorities’ increasing focus on curbing capital flight from the Chinese mainland, and Macao’s newly promulgated Illegal Gaming Law.

[See more: Nearly 850 people have been arrested so far in the currency exchange crackdown]

“Very clearly, policymakers understand that tightening the tourniquet on China’s capital outflows reduces liquidity within Macao, with the commensurate effect of diminishing overall waging turnover, resulting in lower average bets,” Bonnet wrote. 

“This will inevitably lead to lower GGR, based on casino games’ math and the normalised casino house advantage.”

Bonnet said that while these policies may have aimed to keep monthly GGR at around 20 billion patacas, external challenges – like China’s economic slump, new tariffs imposed by the US, and Macao’s changing visitor demographic (more families, less gamblers) – could knock a few billion patacas off that figure.

[See more: Smart gaming tables will ‘level the playing field’ in Macao, report says]

To stimulate demand and boost GGR up to that so-called healthy level, Bonnet had three recommendations. First, he proposed that casinos introduce “new products” to reduce their dependence on baccarat, which has a low house advantage. He also advised the SAR’s casinos to “cultivate players” in more complex games like blackjack and poker, in simulated game rooms where they could learn the ropes before risking real cash.

Finally, Bonnet advocated for more forms of cashless gaming. He suggested allowing cryptocurrency and “the much-anticipated digital renminbi,” which could “help to solve the prevailing liquidity problems while addressing regulators’ concerns.”

If Macao’s gaming industry was indeed in the early stages of decline, Bonnet said, it required a collaborative approach and “decisive commitment to making essential changes” to achieve sustainable growth.

https://macaonews.org/news/business/macau-gross-gaming-revenue-peaked-casinos-outlook/

fev25 turistas de HK

No rescaldo dos feriados, num número destaca-se. A quebra de 8,9 por cento dos visitantes oriundos de Hong Kong face aos feriados do Ano Novo Lunar de 2024, para um total de 230 mil pessoas (quase 29 mil por dia).

O presidente da Associação de Indústria Turística de Macau, Andy Wu, garante estar optimista em relação à performance do sector em 2025, que estima recuperar até aos níveis de 2019, mas alerta para a necessidade de consolidar os mercados tradicionais, como o Interior da China e Hong Kong.

Em declarações ao jornal Exmoo, o representante e empresário do sector explica a diminuição de turistas vindos de Hong Kong com vários factores, como os eventos de grande dimensão organizados na região vizinha nos primeiros dois dias do Ano Novo Lunar, mas, sobretudo com a preferência por destinos no Interior da China. Andy Wu, salienta a facilidade em viajar de comboio para a China a partir da Estação de Kowloon Oeste e a possível propensão dos residentes de Hong Kong em visitar Macau na época baixa.

Face a este panorama, o representante do sector indica que as campanhas de promoção do Governo para atrair turistas se focaram no exterior, esforço que deve continuar este ano, sem descurar os mercados tradicionais da China e Hong Kong

https://hojemacau.com.mo/2025/02/07/turismo-preocupacoes-com-quebra-de-visitantes-de-hong-kong/

 fev25

Citigroup has slashed its 2025 growth forecast for Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR), citing as factors “disappointing” Chinese New Year (CNY) Golden Week gambling volume, and the implementation by the United States, on February 1, of tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S.

High-value mainland players in the Macau casino market have traditionally included Chinese factory owners, often with interests in export sectors, according to long-standing commentary by investment analysts.

Citi now expects 3 percent year-on-year GGR growth in Macau this year, versus its previous forecast of 7 percent. First-half GGR could actually fall 1 percent year-on-year, added the banking group.

The institution said Macau “produced lower-than-anticipated“ GGR of MOP589 million (US$73.4 million) per day in January, and “circa MOP900 million per day in the first five days of February”. The first four days of February were part of the lunar new year – an eight-day holiday in mainland China, Macau’s main tourism feeder market.

https://www.ggrasia.com/citigroup-more-than-halves-macau-2025-ggr-growth-forecast-amid-disappointing-cny-and-u-s-tariffs-on-china?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=citigroup-more-than-halves-macau-2025-ggr-growth-forecast-amid-disappointing-cny-and-u-s-tariffs-on-china

fev25

No ano passado, cada visitante que entrou em Macau gastou, em média, 2.157 patacas, ou seja, menos 14,6% em comparação com 2023. No total, a despesa dos visitantes subiu no ano passado para 75,36 mil milhões de patacas, uma vez que houve um aumento significativo do número de turistas no ano passado.

https://pontofinal-macau.com/2025/02/10/despesa-per-capita-dos-visitantes-caiu-quase-15-no-ano-passado/