O otimismo chegou em agosto 25... (Gaming expert projects Macau visitor numbers to surpass 2019 historic peak of 39M by year-end)
Stronger currency outlook lifts gaming sector multiples and target prices: CLSA
- An appreciating RMB has historically portended well for Macao’s integrated resorts, where more than 70 percent of visitors come from mainland China
- CLSA expects a September gross gaming revenue of 18.9 billion patacas, a 10 percent increase from a year ago
- https://macaonews.org/news/business/macau-yuan-gaming-sector-outlook-macao/
Macau’s swift rebound from the pandemic downturn has been propelled by Chinese authorities’ relaxation of travel restrictions, according to MGM Resorts International CEO and President Bill Hornbuckle.
Macau casinos raked in a total of MOP22.16 billion (USD 2.76 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in August, representing a 12.2 per cent year-on-year increase, according to figures released by the city’s gaming regulator on Monday.
Last month’s figure also sets a new post-pandemic high, surpassing the MOP22.13 billion recorded in July.
Data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) indicates that in the first eight months of 2025, GGR totalled MOP160.13 billion (USD 20.3 billion), 7.2 per cent higher than in the same period last year and representing 82.3 per cent of the total recorded in the January–August period of pre-pandemic 2019.
ag25
Following consecutive gross gaming revenue (GGR) beats, industry watchers are poised to thoroughly comb through the August data when the numbers are released next week. Investment analysts have turned more optimistic on the sector’s outlook with this month’s report seen as a litmus test for whether the recent upswing in gambling revenues can be upheld for the remainder of the year.
“There’s no question that a sustained recovery of GGR, and the subsequent taxes earned, would bode well for the local economy,” comments Ben Lee, managing partner at casino industry adviser IGamiX Management and Consulting, speaking to Macao News.
However, Lee adds that the most important driver of GGR is consumer confidence, which still remains fragile, noting that the onus of the recovery stems from the VIP segment given the multiplier effect of credit issuance.
https://macaonews.org/news/business/macau-ggr-gross-gaming-revenue-forecast-outlook-predictions-macao/
ag25
Macau’s casino sector is poised for sustained growth through early 2026, with rising gaming revenues, robust mass-market demand, and an undervalued stock landscape creating what J.P. Morgan calls a “long-legged” recovery.
In a recent report the investment bank upgraded industry forecasts for the third time in three months, now projecting gross gaming revenue (GGR) to climb 13 percent year-on-year in the second half of 2025 — a sharp acceleration from the 4 percent growth seen in the first half.
EBITDA of the city’s gaming concessionaires is expected to rise 12 percent in the third quarter and 16 percent in the fourth, outpacing market consensus by about 10 percent.
While China’s broader economy has shown weak consumer trends, the report argues Macau is benefiting from a wealth-driven, high-end clientele.
Gains in equities, cryptocurrencies, and luxury spending have lifted sentiment, aided by the renminbi’s 4 percent appreciation since April. Hong Kong’s liquidity boom, marked by heavily oversubscribed IPOs and falling interbank rates, has also eased access to Hong Kong dollars for premium gamblers.
The bank’s analysts noted that four straight quarters of GGR outperformance and a 60 percent sector stock rally since April have raised fears of a pullback — fears they dismiss.
‘Macau’s up-cycles typically span at least 3–4 quarters… creating a self-reinforcing demand loop’, analysts DS Kim and Selina Li supplemented, forecasting momentum to last ‘through 1Q26E at least’.
The report highlights that mass and slot play remains the primary growth driver, accounting for over 80 percent of sequential GGR gains in the second quarter, compared to just 14 percent from VIP play.
‘High-profile concerts/events provide gamblers a compelling excuse for more frequent trips, boosting Macau’s allure and capturing greater wallet/time share from gamblers and families’, the analysts added.
J.P. Morgan expects the mass segment to reach 127 percent of 2019 levels by 2026, even as VIP recovers to only about a third of pre-pandemic turnover.
Macau’s post-covid momentum in gross gaming revenue surged to a new height in July at MOP22 billion (US$2.6 billion).
https://agbrief.com/news/15/08/2025/macau-gaming-poised-for-sustained-growth-until-2026-j-p-morgan/?utm_source=Asia+Gaming+Brief&utm_campaign=0cd6468c2b-AGB%3A+%2302207+Monday%2C+18th+August%2C+2025&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_51950b5d21-0cd6468c2b-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D&ct=t%28AGB%3A+%2302207+Monday%2C+18th+August%2C+2025%29&goal=0_51950b5d21-0cd6468c2b-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D&mc_cid=0cd6468c2b&mc_eid=31e20475e6
ago25
Wealthy mainland Chinese consumers less impacted by macro-economic conditions have been the major driver of the stellar gaming performance in recent months, as per a recent report from J.P. Morgan.
Analysts DS Kim and Selina Li wrote that the high-end Chinese demand had even spurred mass-market demand, with this optimistic sentiment ‘likely lifted by wealth effects from stock rallies in China/HK/US, crypto surge, etc’.
‘We have seen similar green-shoots emerging recently across HK retail, Swiss watch exports, and mainland luxury malls,’ the two analysts added, suggesting that affluent consumers appeared to have started spending again.
Currency advantage has also been cited as a contributing factor as the spending power comes from the Chinese yuan.
‘GGR is in HK$, but demand is mainland-driven; RMB’s ~4% appreciation since April lows has helped Chinese spending power in Macau,’ the analysts said.
https://www.macaubusiness.com/gamings-recent-winning-streak-buoyed-by-affluent-consumers-jp-morgan/
ago25
Macao sees business growth and stable financial indicators in the second quarter
- The local economy shows resilience with a notable increase in new companies and stable financial indicators in the second quarter of 2025
- The latest statistics reveal healthy growth in business registrations and sound banking sector performance, signalling a positive economic outlook
According to local media outlet Macao Daily, citing tourism and gaming data, Fong noted that non-gaming consumption growth of the average visitor has already surpassed that of their gaming consumption, signaling a structural shift in visitor spending patterns. He attributed Macau’s competitive edge to its institutional advantages, the large tourist base from mainland China, accumulated hardware and software development, and ongoing investments such as hotel facility upgrades and the expansion of integrated tourism offerings.
The optimistic forecast comes as Macau recorded more than 22 million visitors in the first seven months of 2025, with July alone seeing 3.45 million arrivals—averaging over 110,000 daily visitors—according to Deputy Director of Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO) Cheng Wai Tong. This marks a year-on-year increase of approximately 14 percent for the January–July period.
https://agbrief.com/news/macau/04/08/2025/gaming-expert-projects-macau-visitor-numbers-to-surpass-2019-historic-peak-of-39m-by-year-end/?utm_source=Asia+Gaming+Brief&utm_campaign=6409f6f3f8-AGB%3A+%2302198+Tuesday%2C+05th+August%2C+2025&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_51950b5d21-6409f6f3f8-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D&ct=t%28AGB%3A+%2302198+Tuesday%2C+05th+August%2C+2025%29&goal=0_51950b5d21-6409f6f3f8-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D&mc_cid=6409f6f3f8&mc_eid=31e20475e6
Analysts give big boost to Macau’s 2025 GGR forecast citing visa easing, concerts, China consumer confidence
Banking group Morgan Stanley has doubled its 2025 growth forecast for Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) from 5.0 percent to 10.0 percent. It also tripled its forecast for industry 2025 year-over-year growth in earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) to 6.0 percent, from 2.0 percent.
Seaport Research Partners has pushed its Macau GGR growth estimate to 9.0 percent year-on-year, from its previous outlook of about 7.0 percent.
In 2024, Macau GGR was just over MOP226.78 billion (US$28.05 billion), according to Macau government data.
Morgan Stanley’s updated GGR outlook in a Monday note came after Macau reported on Friday its best post-pandemic monthly GGR, at MOP22.13 billion, a figure up 19.0 percent year-on-year. June’s GGR expanded also by 19 percent.
Morgan Stanley stated: “Two consecutive monthly beats (GGR +19 percent year-on-year) leads to our full-year GGR growth forecast rising to 10 percent year-on-year.”
The institution added the trading environment contributed to “notable positive operating leverage”.
Morgan Stanley stated: “The primary driver for the uptick is higher visitation (+25 percent year-on-year in second-quarter 2025 from the mainland) owing to easier visa issuance (multi-entry visa for Shenzhen and Zhuhai, more Individual Visit Scheme cities added).”
Other factors were, it said: “Increases in concerts featuring popular Asian performers, and a higher number of junkets. Macau has also benefitted from reductions in mainland and Hong Kong visitors to Thailand and Japan lately, and renminbi strength has helped as well.”
Morgan Stanley’s 2025 Macau GGR estimate now stands at MOP248.96 billion, with an average daily rate of about MOP682 million.
Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, said in a Sunday memo that Macau’s July GGR result “blows out expectations again”. Seaport expects August GGR to rise 14.8 percent year-on-year.
“Reacceleration of GGR growth is solidifying – we raise our 2025 GGR growth forecast to 9 percent” from 7 percent year-on-year, the institution stated.
Mr Umansky observed: “China economy improvement – especially the upper middle-class consumer – is key to driving upward growth in Macau.”
He added: “While escalation of U.S. tariffs remains an overhang, we expect a trade deal to occur between the U.S. and China which will shore up China consumer confidence and improve spend.
“Improving consumer confidence – especially in the upper middle class and high net worth individuals – should help support Macau GGR growth.”
Stephen Pizzella, of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc, said in a Friday note that Macau’s July GGR tally “represents a 5.0 percent sequential improvement (+1.6 percent per day), relative to June”.
Deutsche Bank added that July’s 19.0 percent year-on-year monthly increase “compared to recent checks in the range of +12 percent to +16 percent year-on-year”.
For its part, Morgan Stanley observed its own forecast for Macau-wide EBITDA was “above consensus by 1 percent… but expect further consensus increases and re-rating for stocks”.
The banking institution nonetheless stated that “lessons” from Macau’s second-quarter earnings season “thus far,” included that player-related “reinvestment costs as a percentage of mass [business] are not declining yet, and that mass- market share gainers” such as Sands China Ltd and MGM China Holdings Ltd, “suggest second-quarter mass growth” market-wide “may be higher than anticipated” and that Wynn Macau Ltd /SJM Holdings Ltd “lost share”.
https://www.ggrasia.com/analysts-give-big-boost-to-macaus-2025-ggr-forecast-citing-visa-easing-concerts-china-consumer-confidence?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=analysts-give-big-boost-to-macaus-2025-ggr-forecast-citing-visa-easing-concerts-china-consumer-confidence
As receitas brutas dos casinos de Macau durante este ano podem aproximar-se dos 248,9 mil milhões de patacas, segundo a nova estimativa dos analistas do banco de investimento Morgan Stanley
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