Macau EBITDA to grow 10% in 2026

dez26

Banking giant Citigroup is forecasting Macau’s gross gaming revenues to rise 6% and EBITDA by 10% year-on-year in 2026, driven by big name concerts, the addition of luxurious hotel suite supply and the addition of new baccarat side bets.

This will ensure Macau remains the “top travel destination for the affluent mainland Chinese visitors who seek a total experience,” said Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau in a Thursday note.

A 6% increase would see gaming revenues reach around MOP$263.5 billion (US$33.0 billion) – representing 90% of pre-COVID levels.

“We expect concerts to drive growth in visitation and premium players’ per-capita spending (as they need to check-in cash to the casinos to secure hot concert tickets), new hotel suites to increase average length of stay and the increasing popularity in new side bets to further boost hold rates,” Citi said. “We forecast industry EBITDA to grow 10% year-on-year, with EBITDA margins holding up at around 29% – largely flat year-on-year.”

While Macau should see strong growth throughout the year, Citi noted that there will likely be a year-on-year decline in GGR in June and July due to the FIFA World Cup, with historical data suggesting that major football tournaments consume some Macau players’ betting budgets. The impact could also be greater than usual given that the expanded World Cup format will see a total of 88 matches played – more than double the matches during the 2024 Euros.

As such, Citi forecasts GGR of MOP$19.0 billion in June, down 10% year-on-year, and MOP$21.0 billion in July, down 5%.

“That said, we expect positive GGR growth to resume as soon as the tournament finishes,” the analysts stated.

The broader Macau growth story next year will see some concessionaires shine while others fade, they added, with Sands China singled out as the largest market share gainer – potentially up 1.6 percentage points to 25.1% – on further ramp-up of Londoner Grand and Venetian Arena.  Wynn Macau Ltd should also see its market share start recovering once its expanded Chairman’s Club at Wynn Palace opens in Q1, Citi said.

https://asgam.com/2025/12/12/citi-macau-ebitda-to-grow-10-in-2026-on-illustrious-concert-schedule-new-suite-supply-and-latest-baccarat-side-bets/

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