Gov’t cuts 2025 gaming revenue forecast by 5 pct to MOP228 bln
he Macau government has lowered by 5.0 percent its 2025 income forecast in relation to the city’s direct 35-percent tax on gross gaming revenue (GGR).
The city now expects to collect this year MOP79.8 billion (US$9.87 billion) from direct gaming tax, versus a prior budgetary forecast of MOP84.0 billion. Macau refers officially to its 35-percent direct tax on GGR as “special gaming tax”.
The revision in income estimate from such tax is in a government-proposed 2025 fiscal budget amendment bill being scrutinised by a subcommittee of Macau’s Legislative Assembly. The figures are outlined in a newly-issued opinion document from that subcommittee.
The 2025 fiscal budget amendment bill had a final approval by the Legislative Assembly on Wednesday (July 9).
On June 3, the city’s government had reduced by circa 5 percent its 2025 forecast for Macau GGR, to MOP228 billion from a previous projection of MOP240 billion.
The Macau Legislative Assembly (AL) has unanimously approved the first draft of the government’s 2025 budget amendment bill, which proposes a decrease in budgeted revenue due to lower gross gaming revenue estimates.
In a move aimed at ensuring the smooth operation of public administrative services and meeting essential commitments for 2025, the Assembly reviewed a new 2025 Budget Law last year, as adjustments to the budget have become necessary due to evolving public finance policies.
The Macau government’s revision of its gross gaming revenue (GGR) target for 2025 to MOP228.0 billion (US$28.2 billion), down from MOP240.0 billion was “not a complete surprise,” stated CreditSights Inc in a Thursday memo.
That is “given the softer-than-required monthly GGR prints since the start of the year,” wrote analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey.
The Macau Government has trimmed its 2025 gaming revenue forecast by 5 per cent, lowering the original estimate from MOP240 billion (US$29.8 billion) to MOP228 billion (US$ 28.3 billion) — or MOP19 billion per month — citing subdued casino performance so far this year.
The revised projection was announced on Tuesday after the Executive Council reviewed an amended government budget plan for 2025.
Speaking at a press conference about the updated budget, Ho In Mui, deputy director of the Financial Services Bureau (DSF), said: “The gaming revenue forecast was revised due to several factors, including global economic uncertainties and changing consumption patterns among tourists, particularly in gaming.”
She added that while monthly revenue could surpass MOP20 billion in some months during the second half of 2025 — as seen in the performance in May — a more conservative estimate of MOP19 billion per month is prudent for budget planning.
“With this new forecast, the Macau government can still achieve a balanced budget for 2025,” Ho said. The government has previously warned that if monthly gaming revenue drops below MOP15 billion, the city could face a budget deficit.
Gross gaming revenue in the first five months of 2025 rose 1.7 per cent year-on-year to MOP97.71 billion — or an average of MOP19.54 billion per month — buoyed by a strong MOP21.19 billion showing in May.
The revised forecast implies the government now expects just a 0.54 per cent increase in gaming revenue for the full year, compared to last year’s MOP226.78 billion. That’s a significant downgrade from the previously forecast 5.8 per cent growth.
https://www.macaubusiness.com/govt-cuts-2025-gaming-revenue-forecast-by-5-pct-to-mop228-bln/
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