Trump
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Macao will not retaliate against US casino operators: Sam Hou Fai
- The SAR’s top official says companies acting ‘in an orderly and lawful manner’ will be ‘protected and supported’ by the local government
- The chief executive also doubled down on the need to diversify Macao’s economy, even though ‘it will be very difficult to reverse the dependency on gaming revenues’
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The tension on US-China relations has lessened slightly, as both nations announced a suspension on part of their tariffs on exports for 90 days, potentially offering a reprieve from speculation over the impact on Macau’s US-backed gaming operators.
ab25 FITCH
“Os casinos dos Estados Unidos da América em Macau enfrentam desafios geopolíticos crescentes à medida que a guerra comercial avança; as tensões comerciais entre os EUA e a China suscitam preocupações de que as operadoras de jogo americanas possam ser alvo de retaliações, enquanto as perspetivas económicas mais fracas na China deverão pressionar as receitas e os lucros do jogo em Macau”, lê-se numa análise sobre o impacto da guerra comercial na operação destas empresas americanas em Macau.
A Agência Fitch nota que “as tensões comerciais entre os EUA e a China intensificaram-se nos últimos meses, com medidas retaliatórias entre os dois países que elevaram as tarifas comerciais bilaterais para mais de 100%, e recentemente, houve esforços para amenizar o conflito, mas ainda não há certeza de como as questões serão resolvidas”, podendo, por isso, impactar a evolução da atividade das três empresas norte-americanas que operam neste setor em Macau: Las Vegas Sands, Wynn e MGM Resorts International.
Ainda assim, acrescentam, ” não há indicações concretas de que a China tenha direcionado medidas contra as empresas de jogo que operam em Macau”, região onde a indústria representa 80% das receitas fiscais, e as três operadoras norte-americanas valem mais de metade das receitas deste mercado.
Para os analistas desta agência, para além da questão da guerra comercial, com o aumento das tarifas a ocupar lugar de destaque, as operadoras em Macau enfrentam também o perigo de um abrandamento da economia chinesa, que pode pressionar as receitas do jogo no território.
“Esta perspetiva mais fraca de evolução económica na China pode também pressionar as receitas em Macau, mas isto pode ser compensado com eventuais medidas governamentais para estimular a despesa dos consumidores”, lê-se no relatório, que lembra que a estimativa de crescimento chinês para 2025 foi revista em baixa para 3,9%.
https://www.plataformamedia.com/2025/05/06/casinos-de-macau-vulneraveis-a-retaliacao-e-ao-abrandamento-chines/
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opinião Nelson Kot
O Governo de Macau e todos os sectores sociais têm de acompanhar de perto a evolução da situação, tomar activamente medidas de resposta, aproveitar as oportunidades existentes e promover um desenvolvimento económico estável e sustentável. A título de exemplo, devem reforçar a cooperação económica com o Interior da China e aprofundar o desenvolvimento sinérgico na construção da Grande Baía Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau, de modo a que a RAEM aumente a capacidade de resistência ao risco da sua própria economia.
https://jtm.com.mo/opiniao/impacto-na-economia-de-macau-contexto-duelo-tarifario-entre-china-os-eua-nelson-kot/
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‘Termination or non-renewal’ of US-backed Macau gaming companies’ licenses ‘would be a worst-case scenario,’ which analysts at Fitch say is ‘highly unlikely’.
In a Thursday note, Fitch Ratings projected one possible scenario in which US operators are ‘compelled to see their Macau operations’. The analysts say this ‘could become more plausible if US-China relations deteriorate further in the medium term but that is not envisaged in the forecast horizon’.
https://agbrief.com/intel/deep-dive/25/04/2025/us-based-macau-gaming-companies-only-would-lose-their-gaming-licenses-in-worst-case-scenario-due-to-volatile-politics-fitch/ +https://asgam.com/2025/04/25/fitch-not-implausible-to-see-us-operators-forced-to-sell-macau-casino-interests-should-us-china-relations-deteriorate-further/?utm_source=IAGMM&utm_campaign=7e6983a3dc-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2024_05_21_11_42_COPY_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-8564025909-131421005
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A situação da economia de Macau é estável mas dificilmente o território vai ficar imune ao crescente protecionismo e unilateralismo a nível internacional.
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The potential for political risks related to the United States-China trade tariff row might raise some concerns among observers regarding the operations of U.S. firms in Macau’s gaming industry, but any possible concerns “appear overblown,” says CBRE Equity Research.
“Political risks, such as retaliatory actions against U.S. gaming operators in Macau, are a concern but appear overblown,” wrote analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh in a Monday memo.
The institution added: “Macau’s integrated resorts are critical to the region’s economy, contributing over 80 percent of government tax revenue and U.S.-based operators alone employ 14 percent of the workforce,”
It added: “Direct actions against operators could destabilise the [Macau] SAR [Special Administrative Region], making such moves unlikely.”
According to the analysts, “collateral from broader policies like yuan [the Chinese currency] devaluation or capital flow restrictions pose greater risks”
https://www.ggrasia.com/risks-of-retaliatory-action-against-u-s-operators-in-macau-appear-overblown-cbre?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=risks-of-retaliatory-action-against-u-s-operators-in-macau-appear-overblown-cbre
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CLSA cuts growth projections for Macao’s gambling sector
- Citing US-China trade tensions, the bank’s analysts say gross gaming revenue will not be nearly as robust as expected
- While more tourists are indeed visiting Macao this year than last, the bank noted that they are spending notably less
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Macau pode perder algum turismo do interior e do exterior do País, mas também verá a população pagar mais caro alguns produtos com a Guerra commercial lançada pela Administração de Donald Trump.
É a opinião de António Félix Pontes que lembra que os Estados Unidos querem com estas medidas tentar prejudicar a China
https://www.tdm.com.mo/pt/news-detail/1078011?isvideo=false&lang=pt&shortvideo=0&category=all
ab25 limited impact to the Macau gaming sector
Any impact on consumer demand for Macau tourism and gambling stemming from the United States-China trade tariff row, might come as a result of “a ripple effect on more cost-conscious travellers/casino-goers,” says CreditSights Inc. in a Thursday memo.
But the financial research firm added: “At this juncture, we think there is limited impact to the Macau gaming sector at the fundamental level as we still expect China’s 2025 GDP [gross domestic product] growth at 4.7 percent,” above market consensus of 4.5 percent.
“Fundamentally, the Macau gaming sector is largely domestic focused as the bulk of visitors into Macau come primarily from mainland China,” noted CreditSights analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey in their memo.
Their sanguine view on the outlook for Macau was maintained “after factoring in the tariff implications and trade uncertainties”.
Nonetheless, the institution acknowledged “downside risk to our 4.7 percent 2025 GDP forecast has increased due to a global growth slowdown”.
https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-2025-fundamentals-still-helped-by-china-gdp-growth-despite-u-s-china-tariff-row-creditsights?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=macau-2025-fundamentals-still-helped-by-china-gdp-growth-despite-u-s-china-tariff-row-creditsights
ab25 China pode obrigar operadoras dos EUA a vender casinos em Macau, diz analista
O fundador da consultora de jogo IGamix, Ben Lee, expressou receio sobre o impacto do “atual atrito” entre a China e os Estados Unidos devido à plataforma de vídeos TikTok e aos portos operados pelo grupo de Hong Kong CK Hutchison no Panamá.
“Se a China adoptar a mesma estratégia de retaliação que tem vindo a empregar”, a possibilidade das companhias de jogo dos Estados Unidos serem forçadas a vender as operações em Macau a empresários chineses “sobe alguns níveis”, disse Ben Lee. “Penso que depois de os EUA ameaçarem retirar as ações chinesas das bolsas, ‘está tudo em cima da mesa'”, acrescentou o analista da IGamix, citando o secretário do Tesouro norte-americano.
Na quarta-feira, Scott Bessent, numa entrevista à emissora Fox Business, recusou-se a afastar a possibilidade de obrigar as empresas chinesas a abandonar as bolsas dos Estados Unidos: “Essa decisão vai ser do Presidente Trump”.
O director executivo da CreditSights, Nicholas Chen, recordou à Lusa que as novas concessões podem ser rescindidas “por ameaça à segurança nacional ou da RAEM [Região Administrativa Especial de Macau]”, ou por “razões de interesse público”.
+ https://macaonews.org/news/business/macau-us-casinos-forced-sale-macao/#related
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Fornecedores de Macau recorrem a mercados alternativos
Macau estabeleceu acordos comerciais com Canadá, Austrália, Japão, e países europeus e do sudeste asiático que permitem minimizar o efeito das tarifas impostas pela Casa Branca, que entraram ontem em vigor. O presidente Associação da União dos Fornecedores de Macau refere que a partir do fim de Maio os efeitos serão imprevisíveis
abr25 TURISMO
Macau está atento ao escalar da guerra comercial entre os Estados Unidos da América e a China, que coloca o mundo na expectativa de poder estar à beira de um período de recessão e inflação. A presidente da Direção do Serviços de Turismo, Helena Senna Fernandes, assegurou, esta quinta-feira, que se houver abalos significativos a RAEM accionará um plano para corrigir o plano de promoção do setor.
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Chinese tourist spending in Macau at risk
The trade tariff row between the United States and China could dampen the appetite for spending in Macau, among tourists from the Chinese mainland. So suggested several tourism-sector professionals, in comments to GGRAsia.
Andy Wu Keng Kuong, president of the Travel Industry Council of Macau, said that while visitor volume might hold firm – the mainland is the main feeder market for Macau – the overall economic value of such tourists could be at risk if consumer confidence took a knock from geopolitical events.
He stated, referring to the mainland province next door to the city: “In terms of the flow of travellers heading to Macau – where many are from Guangdong province – I don’t think we’ll see many changes to the volume… which has been robust so far.”
But Mr Wu added: “Chinese consumers will likely continue to be very cautious on their spend, when economic uncertainty persists.”
The travel trade representative also voiced concerns about potential for the devaluation of China’s currency, the yuan.
He stated: “Since last year, we have seen that Chinese consumers’ spending power has already weakened. That was, apparently, reflected in Macau’s retail businesses.”
He added, referring to geopolitics: “With what is happening now, this trend will just likely continue.”
Hoffman Ma Ho Man, deputy chairman of Hong Kong-listed Success Universe Group Ltd, remarked that the U.S.-China trade dispute might negatively impact Macau’s tourism industry, if only in the short run.
“The trade war issue might have some sentiment-driven impact on the city’s tourist trade in the near term,” Mr Ma told GGRAsia. His company is an investor in the Ponte 16 casino resort in Macau’s Inner Harbour district.
But the Ponte 16 boss stated he remained “cautiously optimistic” regarding Macau’s gaming and hospitality segments. “I think by now, the worst of the news that impacts economic sentiment has all come out,” said Mr Ma.
He noted that so far this year, for Ponte 16, table game bet limits and bet minimums had actually risen on average.
“The key period for the sector to watch out for will be the upcoming May 1 holiday,” he added.
A Chinese mainland holiday – and usually a peak season for Macau – encompasses May 1, also known Labour Day. This year, China’s State Council has decreed the overall break as running from May 1 to May 5, inclusive.
Equity research provider Morningstar said recently that “geopolitical and U.S. policy actions increase the risk premium” for the stock prices of American casino operators with exposure to Macau’s gaming market.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump raised to a minimum of 145 percent, the U.S. tariff on imports from China. On Thursday, Beijing raised its own tariffs on U.S. goods to 84 percent.
The potential for Macau tourism-market turbulence amid U.S. trade policy steps is against the backdrop of a Chinese economy that had already been facing moderation in domestic consumer demand.
Casino GGR in Macau rose 0.8 percent year-on-year in March, but it was down 0.4 percent sequentially, according to official data.
On April 1, Macau’s Secretary for Economy and Finance, Tai Kin Ip, expressed caution on the outlook this year for the city’s public finances. He said casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) might fall short of the government’s MOP240-billion (US$30.0-billion) target.
Under Macau’s 10-year gaming concession system that came into effect on January 1, 2023, the effective tax on GGR is 40 percent.
https://www.ggrasia.com/chinese-tourist-spending-in-macau-at-risk-from-u-s-china-tariff-row-industry-reps?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chinese-tourist-spending-in-macau-at-risk-from-u-s-china-tariff-row-industry-reps
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A Universidade de Macau (UM) reviu esta quinta-feira em baixa a previsão para o crescimento económico da região, em parte devido ao potencial impacto na confiança dos turistas chineses das tarifas impostas pelos Estados Unidos
O Centro de Estudos de Macau e o Departamento de Economia da UM preveem que o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do território suba 6,8%, menos 1,1 pontos percentuais do que na anterior previsão, feita em janeiro.
O coordenador do projeto e economista Kwan Fung disse que a revisão em baixa se deve ao declínio no consumo dos visitantes e às “tarifas norte-americanas sobre o mundo“, algo que “tem impacto indireto na economia de Macau”.
https://observador.pt/2025/04/10/universidade-reve-em-baixa-previsao-para-crescimento-economico-de-macau/?utm_campaign=immediate&utm_content=article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=observador_alerts
abr25
Share prices for listed casino businesses in Asia – including Macau-related names – sled on Monday, as the Hong Kong market led losses in the region, amid growing fears over a global trade war sparked by tariffs introduced by the United States.
Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump announced an additional 34-percent tariff on all Chinese goods imported into the United States. It was part of a plan establishing a 10-percent baseline tariff on imports from nearly every country, although many nations – including China – are subject to higher rates.
China stated on Friday – a day that the Hong Kong bourse was closed due to a public holiday – that it would impose reciprocal 34-percent tariffs on all imports from the United States.
On Monday, Hong Kong returned from a long weekend with the Hang Seng Index declining 13.2 percent, while the mainland China’s CSI 300 – consisting of the 300 stocks with the largest market capitalisation – plummeted nearly 7.1 percent.
https://www.ggrasia.com/hong-kong-casino-related-stocks-lead-sell-off-in-asian-markets-on-monday?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=hong-kong-casino-related-stocks-lead-sell-off-in-asian-markets-on-monday
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Equity research provider Morningstar says “geopolitical and U.S. policy actions increase the risk premium” for the stock prices of American casino operators with exposure to Macau’s gaming market.
Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump (pictured in a file photo) announced an additional 34-percent tariff on all Chinese goods imported into the United States. It was part of a plan establishing a 10-percent baseline tariff on imports from nearly every country, although many nations – including China – are subject to higher rates.
China stated on Friday that it would impose reciprocal 34-percent tariffs on all imports from the United States.
In late February, the U.S. administration had already added Macau to the list of “foreign adversary” jurisdictions.
Morningstar Equity Research said in a stock note on Thursday that it had adjusted its cost of equity assumptions for U.S.-listed casino operators Wynn Resorts Ltd, Las Vegas Sands Corp, and MGM Resorts International “due to their exposure to Macau” and “increasing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China.”
“Our reduced fair value estimates are US$53 per share for Las Vegas Sands (US$56 prior) and US$46 per share for MGM Resorts (US$49 prior),” wrote Dan Wasiolek, senior equity analyst at Morningstar.
“Our fair value estimate on Wynn Resorts’ shares remains at US$111,” he added.
Wynn Resorts controls Wynn Macau Ltd, which owns and operates two casino resorts in Macau. Las Vegas Sands is the parent of Sands China Ltd, the promoter of a portfolio of casino properties in Macau, including The Venetian Macao, The Parisian Macao, and The Londoner Macao.
MGM Resorts is the majority shareholder in MGM China Holdings Ltd, which owns and operates two casino complexes in Macau.
Wynn Macau Ltd, Sands China, and MGM China are all listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
“Trump’s tariff war is moving the U.S. further toward protectionism, a shift we see lasting for the foreseeable future,” said Mr Wasiolek.
Morningstar estimated that approximately 60 percent of Las Vegas Sands’ earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) would come from Macau “by the end of the decade.” This compared with an estimated 20 percent for MGM Resorts and 50 percent for Wynn Resorts.
“While we will continue to monitor the macroeconomic enironment for our Macau-related coverage, we maintain our view that all six gaming concessions will get renewed and extended beyond the 2032 period,” when the current licences expire, stated Mr Wasiolek.
“Our stance is based on China’s desire that Macau be a world destination resort, which we think requires the integrated resort expertise of Las Vegas Sands, MGM Resorts, and Wynn Resorts,” he added.
https://www.ggrasia.com/trumps-policy-actions-increase-risk-for-u-s-casino-operators-in-macau-morningstar?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=trumps-policy-actions-increase-risk-for-u-s-casino-operators-in-macau-morningstar
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