Divergence between Macau visitor recovery and city’s casino GGR performance (a new ceiling)

NO MESMO DIA:

The Macau operations of casino firm Las Vegas Sands Corp have not been performing as expected, says Robert Goldstein (pictured in a file photo), the group’s chairman and chief executive. That was in the context of the casino firm, according to him, not being as competitive as it should be regarding incentives to customers, as well as in terms of increasing earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) across the Macau portfolio.

Las Vegas Sands runs casino resorts in Macau via its Sands China Ltd unit, and the Marina Bay Sands property in Singapore, via its Marina Bay Sands Pte Ltd unit.

“Macau has always been a market predicated on product, on retail, and quality of food, and the product drove revenue. What’s happened is it’s gotten [a] much more incentive-driven market – direct incentive to the customer – [and] we’ve not played that game as well as others have,” stated the executive during a session on Thursday at the Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference.

He added: “I’m not here to say they [Macau market rivals] are right and we are wrong. We need to be more aggressive, and it may cost us some margin [points].”

Mr Goldstein further stated: “You’ve got to compete, and you’ve got to be market sensitive; and frankly, we haven’t been. We have been good enough, but our numbers are disappointing to me.”

According to the CEO, the group’s operations in Macau “should do better”. 

https://www.ggrasia.com/lvs-boss-calls-macau-results-disappointing-says-group-needs-to-be-more-aggressive?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=lvs-boss-calls-macau-results-disappointing-says-group-needs-to-be-more-aggressive

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Macao’s latest official hotel occupancy rates show an increase for April

• Last month saw Macao’s average hotel occupancy rate hit 87.8 percent, with 5-star properties achieving occupancy of 90.9 percent, according to the statistics bureau

• The number of international guests spending the night in Macao climbed by 12.3 percent compared with April 2024
• https://macaonews.org/news/business/macau-hotel-occupancy-april-2025/

may25

The Macau government’s diversification push is proving successful in attracting more leisure tourists to visit the city but has seen – and will continue to see – a reduction in average spend per visitor, according to research by brokerage CLSA.

In their latest Macau sector outlook report, CLSA analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan noted that Macau’s GGR per visitor has declined 9% year-on-year from MOP$6,459 to MOP$5,846 in 1Q25 – also representing a 21% decline compared with 2019 levels. GGR per visitor is expected to fall by 6.6% year-on-year through FY25 although a 6.3% rebound is forecast for 2026.

Although consumer confidence is one reason for the reduced spend, CLSA added that “Macau’s diversification into more non-gaming offerings, such as entertainment events, is also a driver for more leisure visitors.”

On total visitation alone, the brokerage expects visitor arrivals to grow by 9.0% this year to 38.1 million in 2025, followed by 3.6% and 4.4% growth to 39.4 million in 2026 and 41.2 million in 2027, respectively.

“Our forecast reaches parity with the 2019 level by 2026,” the analysts said.

The issue of growing Macau’s reputation as a genuine tourism hub away from gaming itself was recently addressed by Galaxy Entertainment Group Chairman Francis Lui, who warned that the city also needs to address its limited hotel room supply in order to stay competitive with regional competitors – particularly as visitor numbers climb nearer pre-COVID levels.

“Las Vegas has over 155,000 hotel rooms supported by 42 million annual visitors. This is over three times that of Macau’s nearly 44,000 hotel rooms despite having 35 million visitors last year,” Lui said during a Keynote Address at G2E Asia.

“Demand for accommodation will continue to outstrip supply in the years ahead. We must also come together as an industry to protect Macau’s premium positioning by not competing on prices but on quality and the customer experience.

“If we fail to properly address the question of accommodation supply, Macau’s competitiveness as a non-gaming destination not only regionally but globally could diminish.”

CLSA, meanwhile, forecasts 1.8% year-on-year growth in 2025 to MOP$230.8 billion (US$28.7 billion), led by visitation growth, followed by 10.2% year-on-year growth to MOP$254.4 billion (US$31.7 billion) in 2026.

https://asgam.com/2025/05/26/clsa-macaus-diversification-push-seeing-more-leisure-tourists-lower-spend-per-visitor/

may25

Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) per capita among the city’s visitors has been declining year-on-year in 2025, and remains far from being able to support the local government’s 2025 revenue target for the city’s casino industry. That is in the context of a year-on-year rise during the first four months of the year in the total number of visitors, contrasting with a flat overall GGR performance for the same period, noted two finance-sector institutions in separate notes.

GGR per visitor “remains under pressure” while visitor arrival numbers are increasing, “suggesting more leisure visitors (or lower value players),” wrote analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan of brokerage CLSA Ltd, in a Wednesday report.

https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-ggr-average-spend-per-visitor-under-pressure-govt-target-for-casino-revenue-might-be-missed-analysts?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=macau-ggr-average-spend-per-visitor-under-pressure-govt-target-for-casino-revenue-might-be-missed-analysts

may25

Entre Janeiro e Março, a despesa ‘per capita’ dos visitantes na RAEM desceu 13,2% em termos anuais, completando sete trimestres consecutivos com quebras homólogas. Num período em que os turistas internacionais superaram a média geral da poupança, os gastos totais dos visitantes, excluindo o jogo, baixaram 3,6% para 19,6 mil milhões de patacas, revelam dados oficiais

https://jtm.com.mo/local/gastos-de-visitantes-internacionais-sofrem-quebra-acima-da-media/

may25

Macau’s golden growth narrative may be reaching its natural limit, as capacity constraints and market saturation curb further expansion, Praveen Choudhary, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley Asia expressed on Wednesday.

Speaking at the G2E Asia gaming conference, Choudhary said the long-standing investment thesis based on low gaming penetration among mainland Chinese gamblers is no longer viable.

“We are done with that story,” he said. “With all due respect, penetration will not go to 8 per cent like we’ve seen in Las Vegas. It is currently 2 per cent, and I think we’re going to mature around here.”

While gaming penetration in Guangdong Province has reached 16.5 per cent, Macau’s growth path appears more constrained. “We’ve been adding hotels, but most of the operators are now building fewer rooms, focusing on premium suites instead,” Choudhary noted, adding that new supply in Macau is drying up. “As of today, Galaxy Phase 4 is the only major hotel addition left.”

Earlier on Wednesday Galaxy Entertainment Group (GEG) Chairman Francis Lui Yiu Tung also warned on Wednesday had also warned that Macau must address its accommodation shortfall if it is to maintain its edge as a global tourism and leisure hub.

Choudhary emphasized that Macau’s gaming industry can no longer rely on increasing capacity to drive growth. “We’re at the endpoint. There’s no more rooms coming, no more tables coming, no more slots coming,” he said. “How do you grow your business? You grow by pricing power.”

He also drew a sharp contrast between Macau and Las Vegas, particularly in non-gaming revenue. “Vegas gets 65 per cent of its revenue from non-gaming. Macau is back to just 15 per cent—not as much as we’d like it to be,” he said, despite strong government focus on diversification.

Although Macau has successfully transitioned from a VIP-centric model to a mass-market one—mirroring Vegas in that respect—Choudhary warned that financial performance hasn’t followed.

“VIP, which used to be 75 per cent of the pie, is now just 13 to 23 per cent. Mass now makes up 75 percent of revenue and has four times the margin of VIP. But margins haven’t risen post-COVID, despite that shift.”

That margin stagnation is a key issue. “One reason is heavy promotional spending to win back market share, which eroded profits,” he said. Another issue is a lack of operating leverage. “Last year, GGR grew 23.4 per cent, EBITDA also grew about 23 per cent. That’s not right—EBITDA should have grown faster.”

The result: gaming stocks have underperformed post-pandemic. “Margins didn’t expand, and neither did valuation multiples. That’s why investor returns have disappointed,” he said.

Still, Choudhary sees a silver lining in Macau’s capacity constraints. “A lot of investors are looking at this as a pricing power story,” he said. “If you remove capacity growth and there’s no new Macau, then maybe pricing can drive profits.”

https://www.macaubusiness.com/macau-gaming-sector-might-have-reached-a-new-ceiling-morgan-stanley-managing-director/

may25

Ed Bowers, President of Global Development at MGM Resorts International, expressed concern over Macau’s recent performance, noting the region’s post-pandemic struggles to pivot away from high-rolling VIP clientele toward broader tourism appeal.

“We can see that the Macau gaming revenue is decreasing,” Bowers said. “The government and the six concessionaires are trying their best to bring in concerts and non-gaming events. But the tourist base isn’t expanding as much as expected. So we have to ask — is it the audience we’re targeting? Or is it the quality of entertainment that’s falling short?”

Niall Murray, Chairman of Murray International Group, described the current period as a “necessary adjustment” away from junket-led VIP play to a more sustainable, mass-market model. But the transition isn’t without growing pains.

“If we’re doing premium mass or broad mass, it’s going to come from international money,” Murray said. “But we don’t have the infrastructure to handle 60 million visitors a year. The Ferry Terminal and airport were built for that, yes, but on the ground, congestion is becoming a real problem.”

He also criticized what he sees as a lack of ambition in non-gaming developments. “You can’t just pour concrete next to a ballroom and call it a world-class entertainment venue,” he said, referring to the new Cotai large-scale concert venue. “We need real attractions that are competitive with what’s available across the border.”

Murray warned of rising unregulated accommodations in Hengqin, with an estimated 25,000 illegal or semi-legal hotel rooms. “That’s dangerous,” he added. “And unless we improve hotel capacity in Macau itself, day trips will keep increasing while overnight stays drop.”

https://agbrief.com/intel/deep-dive/08/05/2025/macaus-grip-on-asias-gaming-crown-continues-but-new-challengers-rise/

may25

Macau’s gross gaming revenue during the five-day May Day Golden Week holiday is estimated to have reached MOP$5.1 billion (US$639 million) or around MOP$1.02 billion (US$128 million) per day, representing 12% year-on-year growth and easily exceeding pre-holiday expectations, according to channel checks by investment bank JP Morgan.

The strong result not only represented a return to around 90% of pre-COVID May Day levels but also smashed consensus by around 20% given earlier estimates of MOP$850 million (US$106 million) per day.

In a note, JP Morgan analysts described it as the “biggest beat we’ve seen in years” and especially encouraging as it provides meaningful contrast to Chinese New Year which missed consensus by around 10%. More importantly, it provides a clear runway for Macau to finally gain some momentum throughout the entire month of May.

“We learned a (very) hard way that it’s better to err on the side of caution when it comes to Macau forecasting, and we wouldn’t extrapolate such a strong recovery in our models yet,” said analysts DS Kim and Selina Li.

“That being said, it goes without saying that our May forecast of flat year-on-year growth now has meaningful upside risks and we wouldn’t be surprised if May GGR prints something like mid-to-high single digit growth year-on-year (vs consensus of flattish momentum).”

As previously reported by IAG, total visitor arrival figures had already exceeded expectations at around 170,000 per day across the five-day holiday period, including a new single-day post-COVID high of 221,968 arrivals last Friday.

https://asgam.com/2025/05/06/jp-morgan-macaus-golden-week-ggr-provides-biggest-beat-in-years-at-more-than-mop1-billion-per-day/

may25

Wynn Resorts’ Macau operations saw a lackluster first quarter of the year, with operating income falling by 38.27 percent, and overall revenue down by 13.3 percent.

In results published by Wynn Resorts on Wednesday, the company indicated that its Macau operations brought in some $127.15 million, a steep drop from the $205.98 recorded in 1Q24, while revenue from its Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau operations brought in some $865.89 million (from $998.64 million in 1Q24).

Casino revenue across the two properties fell by 12.2 percent yearly, totaling $720.05 million. The group’s peninsula property, Wynn Macau, saw a larger hit – with casino revenue down by 20.4 percent yearly to $275.55 million.

Wynn Palace, in Cotai, brought in $444.5 million in casino revenue during the quarter down by 6.2 percent yearly.

https://agbrief.com/intel/deep-dive/07/05/2025/wynn-resorts-macau-operations-see-income-fall-steeply-in-1q25-influenced-by-low-vip-hold/

 abr25

A Universidade de Macau (UM) reviu esta quinta-feira em baixa a previsão para o crescimento económico da região, em parte devido ao potencial impacto na confiança dos turistas chineses das tarifas impostas pelos Estados Unidos

O Centro de Estudos de Macau e o Departamento de Economia da UM preveem que o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do território suba 6,8%, menos 1,1 pontos percentuais do que na anterior previsão, feita em janeiro.

O coordenador do projeto e economista Kwan Fung disse que a revisão em baixa se deve ao declínio no consumo dos visitantes e às “tarifas norte-americanas sobre o mundo“, algo que “tem impacto indireto na economia de Macau”.

https://observador.pt/2025/04/10/universidade-reve-em-baixa-previsao-para-crescimento-economico-de-macau/?utm_campaign=immediate&utm_content=article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=observador_alerts

mar25

Information from the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) indicated that visitors to Macau dropped 4.4% year-on-year in February.

According to DSEC, the drop is mainly due to a relatively high comparison base resulting from the Spring Festival Golden Week falling entirely in February last year, while this year, the 8-day holiday was shared between January and February.

February accounted for some 3,147,184 visitors, almost half a million less than January this year (3,646,561), i.e., -13.69% month-to-month.

According to the same official statistics release, overnight visitors (1,259,358) dropped by 11.7% year-on-year, while same-day visitors (1,887,826) rose by 1.1%.

The average length of stay of visitors held steady year-on-year at 1.1 days, the same happening for the duration of stay for overnight visitors (2.2 days) and same-day visitors (0.3 days).

Despite the results of February alone, in the first two months of this year, 6,793,745 visitor arrivals were recorded, a 10.4% increase y-o-y.

Same-day visitors (4,043,105) grew significantly by 20.8%, while overnight visitors (2,750,640) dropped by 2%.

Cumulatively, visitors’ average length of stay shortened by 0.2 days year-on-year to 1 day in the first two months, with the duration of stay for overnight visitors (2.2 days) and same-day visitors (0.3 days) remaining unchanged.

DSEC said the decrease in the overall average length of stay was attributed to the year-on-year growth in the proportion of same-day visitors in the total number of visitors.

Mainland visitors on IVS dropping more

According to the DSEC report, visitors from the mainland decreased by 6.4% year-on-year to 2,291,662 in February, with those traveling under the Individual Visit Scheme (1,331,091) reduced even further by 11.1%.

Among the mainland visitors, 120,002 traveled under the “one trip per week measure,” 30,677 under the “multiple-entry measure,” and 9,262 under the “tourist group multi-entry measure.” Additionally, visitors from the nine Pearl River Delta cities in the Greater Bay Area fell by 3.2% year-on-year to 1,122,493.

In contrast, visitors from Taiwan (67,951) rose by 14.4% year-on-year, while those from Hong Kong (579,843) dropped by 4.7%.

International visitors are up by 18%

International visitors totaled 207,728 in February, up by 17.9% year-on-year. Southeast Asian markets, visitors from Indonesia (14,921), Malaysia (14,480), Thailand (11,261), and Singapore (6,762) rose by 19.6%, 18.1%, 25.5%, and 25.2% year-on-year, respectively, while those from the Philippines (38,847) decreased by 2.5%.

In the South Asian markets, visitors from India (4,093) remained stable year over year, while in the Northeast Asian markets, visitors from South Korea (59,330) and Japan (14,444) presented the most significant leaps, growing by 41.8% and 26.2%, respectively.

In the long-haul markets, the number of visitors from the USA (10,561) increased by 6.6% yearly.

Arrivals by sea drop by almost one-quarter

Statistics from DSEC also show that the number of visitors arriving by sea recorded a significant drop last month.

Analysis of data by checkpoint shows that the number of visitor arrivals by land (2,579,462; 82% of total), sea (334,443; 10.6%), and air (233,279; 7.4%) showed respective year-on-year decreases of 1.5%, 21.8%, and 6%

https://macaudailytimes.com.mo/visitors-in-free-fall-especially-from-the-mainland.html

mar25 RETAIL

Two operators of large Macau shopping malls – casino firms Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd and Sands China Ltd – respectively saw their fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 net revenues from their Cotai mall businesses decline year-on-year. That is according to their latest annual financial results.

Mall net revenue at Galaxy Macau – Galaxy Entertainment’s flagship casino resort property in Cotai – amounted to HKD348 million (US$44.8 million) in the three months to December 31, a flat performance compared to the previous quarter. Galaxy Macau’s fourth-quarter mall net revenue saw a 4.4-percent year-on-year decline.

Galaxy Macau’s full-year 2024 mall net revenue was just above HKD1.39 billion, a decline of 10.8 percent from 2023’s HKD1.56 billion. Nonetheless, the 2024 mall net revenue figure of the Cotai property represented nearly 13.1-percent growth from the HKD1.23 billion reached in 2019, the trading year immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Sands China’s mall business performance was detailed in the fourth-quarter and full-year results of its U.S.-based parent, Las Vegas Sands Corp. The main Sands China malls are at its Cotai properties, namely: The Venetian Macao; The Londoner Macao; the combined The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Macao; and The Parisian Macao.

Their aggregate fourth-quarter net revenue was US$136 million, up 8.8 percent from the prior quarter, but down by 12.8 percent from the same quarter in 2023, according to a GGRAsia review of the data.

Full-year 2024 net revenue from those Sands China malls was US$492 million, down by 3.9 percent from 2023’s US$512 million, and also down by nearly 7 percent from the US$529 million reached in 2019. In 2019, the-then Sands Cotai Central had not yet been revamped and rebranded as The Londoner Macao.

In 2024, the top contributors to Sands China’s mall revenue were The Venetian Macao and the combined mall at The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Macao. The Venetian Macao logged US$230 million, and the latter combo, US$158 million.

While the 2024-net revenue from mall business at The Venetian Macao edged up by 1.3 percent year-on-year, that from the combined mall at The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Macao was down by 15.5 percent from 2023.

Sands China best performer Four Seasons still down

The Shoppes at Four Seasons’ “tenant sales per square foot” – described by the group as the sum of reported comparable sales for the trailing 12 months, divided by the comparable square footage for the same period – remained the highest among all Sands China’s properties. However, the actual figure of full-year 2024 saw a decline from 2023, and 2019.

Tenant sales per square foot for The Shoppes at Four Seasons were US$5,379 in 2024, down by 29.2 percent from US$7,594 in 2023, and also down slightly – by 1.8 percent – from 2019’s US$5,478.

The “over 150” brands carried at The Shoppes at Four Seasons are at the luxury end of the retailing spectrum, as per Sands China’s marketing materials.

The other four Macau casino operators do not report mall performance as a distinct item in their financial results.

Data from Macau’s Statistics and Census Service indicate that citywide, 2024’s per-capita visitor spending on shopping declined compared to 2023, and to 2019.

It was MOP2,387 (US$298) in 2024, down 7.3 percent from 2023’s MOP2,575, and also down 1.2 percent from 2019’s MOP2,415.

A separate survey by the statistics bureau – focused on citywide retail sales – shows that the fourth-quarter value of Macau retail sales grew sequentially by 11.6 percent to MOP18.51 billion. Judged year-on-year, however, fourth-quarter retail sales saw a 8.6-percent decline, led by decreases in sales value for the “watches, clocks and jewellery”, “leather goods” and “department stores” segments.

The fourth-quarter numbers took Macau’s aggregate value of retail sales in 2024 to MOP71.99 billion, a decline by nearly 15 percent year-on-year. The 2024 retail sales value though already corresponded to 93.3 percent of 2019-level, according to statistics bureau data.

https://www.ggrasia.com/galaxy-sands-saw-2024-cotai-mall-net-revenues-dip-y-o-y-amid-citywide-retail-biz-retreat?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=galaxy-sands-saw-2024-cotai-mall-net-revenues-dip-y-o-y-amid-citywide-retail-biz-retreat

fev25

Further “upside” this year in Macau tourism arrivals from the Chinese mainland might “largely come” from mainland provinces “with lower GDP [gross domestic product] per capita” than the city’s core Chinese feeder markets, and so limit post pandemic recovery in gross gaming revenue (GGR).

That is according to a Tuesday note from CreditSights Inc.

The institution said Macau had seen so far this year “a faster recovery in visitor arrivals from Chinese provinces with higher GDP per capita (i.e., Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, etc.), which have already recovered… to pre-Covid levels.”

But the CreditSights team added it thought “any further visitation upside from mainland China would likely largely come from the other provinces with lower GDP per capita, which may constrain the recovery of GGR per visitor”.

Analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey also noted in their Tuesday memo a divergence in January between visitor volume – which went up circa 27 percent year-on-year, and casino GGR, which went down about 6 percent year-on-year.

They said factors probably included not only “softer tourist arrivals” during the first three days of China’s eight-day lunar new year holiday that started January 28, but a lower economic value to the city’s casinos of those that did come.

 “Lower premium mass”-level casino clients had been “possibly comprising a larger portion of casino visitors”. There might also have been “a larger number of non-casino visitors within the overall visitor mix in January”.

CreditSights stated: “The average GGR per visitor for January 2025 was lower by 26 percent year-on-year to MOP5,006 [about US$625]… though we note that this may have been skewed down by non-casino visitors during the month.”

The institution qualified that by observing that the Macau authorities “only disclose non-gaming spending per capita, and the GGR per visitor (total GGR over total visitor arrivals) is only a proxy figure for gaming spending per capita”.

Earlier this month, a Macau junket veteran had told GGRAsia that the “weak Chinese economy” had “really eaten into” what mainland VIP junket business remained in the Macau market.

In 2024 Shanghai, one of China’s main commercial centres, had been number two – the second consecutive year of such a ranking – in Macau’s table of mainland-China visitors using any form of China exit visa.

Last year Guangdong province – next door to Macau and the perennial key mainland market – followed by Shanghai city and Zhejiang province, were in descending order the top three mainland source markets, showed GGRAsia’s recent review of data from Macau’s Statistics and Census Service.

Independent travellers to Macau under China’s Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) exit visa system are typically of higher value to Macau’s tourism sector than tour-group visitors, investment analysts have commonly noted.

It has previously been stated by investment analysts and marketing professionals that a factor in eligibility to join the IVS scheme is a mainland community’s standing in an unofficial ‘tier’ system of economic development.

Qingdao and Xi’an were added to China’s IVS system with effect from March 6 last year. Eight other cities – in distant Chinese provinces or regions – were added with effect from May 27 last year.

https://www.ggrasia.com/divergence-between-macau-visitor-recovery-and-citys-casino-ggr-performance-might-persist-this-year-creditsights