Perspetivas para 2025 /26

jan25

Investment bank CLSA forecasts more moderate growth in Macau’s gaming revenue in 2025, with a potential improvement in the growth rate expected in 2026, once Chinese property prices stabilize and consumer confidence picks up in the second half of 2025.

This projection comes amid a shifting narrative for the Macau gaming market, with analysts noting low growth rates following a strong rebound over the past two years post-COVID.

Analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan predict that the sector’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025 will grow modestly by 4 percent year-on-year, reaching $29.3 billion. This forecast is lower than Seaport’s projection, which anticipates 8 percent annual growth.
https://agbrief.com/intel/deep-dive/10/01/2025/macaus-ggr-growth-rate-expected-to-improve-only-in-2026-clsa/

janu25

December GGR down 2 pct, full-year tally surges 23.9 pct to MOP226.78 bln

By
 Newsdesk

Macau casinos generated MOP 18.2 billion (USD 2.27 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in December, accounting for a 2 per cent year-on-year decline., according to the city’s gaming watchdog.

This represents the first year-on-year monthly decline since the lifting of pandemic restrictions in early 2023.

The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) also reported that the full-year 2024 figure increased by 23.9 per cent to reach MOP 226.78 billion (USD 28.3 billion), exceeding the MOP 216 billion forecast outlined in the SAR Government’s 2024 budget.

For 2025, authorities project MOP 240 billion (USD 30 billion) in gaming revenue.

The 2024 GGR tally accounts for 77.5 per cent of the level recorded in pre-Covid 2019.


https://www.macaubusiness.com/december-gaming-revenue-down-2-pct-to-mop-18-2-billion-full-year-tally-surges-23-9-pct/


nov24

O economista Davis Fong defendeu, em declarações citadas pelo Jornal Ou Mun, que o orçamento para o próximo ano, apresentado recentemente pelo Governo, é conservador, uma vez que, na sua opinião, as receitas provenientes do sector do jogo vão ser superiores às previsões oficiais.

O orçamento elaborado por este Governo estima que as receitas brutas de jogo vão chegar aos 240 mil milhões no próximo ano. O documento prevê também que as receitas públicas sejam de 121,1 mil milhões de patacas e que as despesas ascendam às 113,4 mil milhões de patacas. Isto perfaz um saldo positivo de 7,7 mil milhões de patacas. Este orçamento prevê também que o valor total relativo à implementação de medidas em prol do bem-estar da população seja de 25,78 mil milhões de patacas.

Na opinião do antigo deputado à Assembleia Legislativa e actual director do Instituto de Estudos sobre a Indústria do Jogo da Universidade de Macau (UM), as receitas de jogo no próximo ano poderão atingir os 250 mil milhões de patacas. Segundo as contas do académico, ao longo dos últimos anos, tem-se verificado o rácio de 6.500 patacas de receita de jogo por cada visitante que entra em Macau, sendo que este ano esse valor poderá chegar às 6.600 patacas.

https://pontofinal-macau.com/2024/11/28/orcamento-para-2025-e-conservador-diz-davis-fong/


 nov24

Lawmakers are confused about the government’s prediction that gross revenue from casinos will be MOP240 billion in 2025, as expressed yesterday during a Legislative Assembly (AL) session where next year’s budget proposal was debated and voted on.

While some considered the amount “a very conservative” forecast, others expressed fears that the government could be overestimating receipts and underestimating regional competition and other external factors.

The Secretary for Economy and Finance, Lei Wai Nong, was at the AL to present the bill and, as usual, did not elaborate much on how the government arrived at this forecast.

https://macaudailytimes.com.mo/government-gaming-forecast-of-mop240b-too-high-and-too-low-for-lawmakers.html

nov24

The Macau government’s forecast MOP240 billion (US$29.9 billion) for 2025 casino gross gaming revenue (GGR)  is “definitely achievable” and is a “conservative estimate”. So said the city’s current leader, Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng (pictured) in a Tuesday press conference.

The 2025 budget plan had been outlined to the city’s Legislative Assembly, shortly before the media briefing. Mr Ho told legislators that the 2025 budget outline had been agreed with his successor Sam Hou Fai, fomerly the city’s most senior judge, who is due to take over as the city’s leader next month.

Mr Ho had also on Tuesday given legislators  a report on the government’s work for the current year.

Mr Ho told the subsequent press conference that to reach circa MOP220 billion in GGR for 2024 was within expectations, adding: “The forecast we made for next year is not such a big increase… MOP240 billion [in 2025 GGR] is definitely achievable…it is a conservative estimate.”

He noted the 2024 GGR forecast had been MOP216 billion, or MOP18 billion a month.

The Chief Executive stated: “We see that by October [end] casino GGR is around MOP190 billion,” year-to-date, or MOP19 billion a month. At that pace, “we may achieve MOP228 billion in the full year [2024],” said Mr Ho.

He also spoke about the weighting of gaming receipts as a component of the local economy.

“In 2023, gaming receipts…accounted for 37.2 percent of Macau’s GDP [gross domestic product]. This year, I expect that this percentage could go up to around 40 percent,” he observed.

https://www.ggrasia.com/us30bln-2025-ggr-target-achievable-for-macau-ce/


A recent forecast by the Macao government, predicting that the casino sector’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will hit 240 billion patacas (approximately US$29.9 billion) in 2025, may be significantly underestimated, according to a Citigroup analysis cited by industry media.

In a comprehensive report published on Wednesday, analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau projected a 7 percent increase in GGR year-over-year, reaching US$30.4 billion, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) rising by 13 percent to US$9 billion in 2025. This growth is anticipated to be fueled by increased visitor numbers, the introduction of advanced gambling tables, and a growing trend in side bets.

The analysts also drew attention to the government’s historical tendency to underestimate GGR. They pointed out that the government has failed to accurately forecast GGR in nine out of the last ten years (from 2011 to 2019 and in 2023), with discrepancies ranging from 10 percent to 60 percent.

“If past trends continue, there could be considerable upside potential to Citi’s GGR forecast,” they noted, estimating that the theoretical GGR per player could rise by 5.9 percent solely due to enhanced efficiency from smart tables, which facilitate a higher number of hands per hour. Additionally, the rising interest in side bets – which have the potential to greatly increase a player’s overall value – are easier to manage with the new technology.

“Smart tables will also allow casinos to better understand the true value of their players through detailed data collection on their gaming behaviours,” the analysts said.

https://macaonews.org/news/business/macau-news-ggr-2025-forecast-prediction-citigroup-macao/

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